Demand is softening in the U.S. while Mexico and Canada remain steady
As we head into the final months of 2025, I want to share lessons from STR Rev Talk Webinar 4, where we were joined by Lejla Lolic, Solutions Consultant at PriceLabs. We looked back at how summer performed across North America and discussed what the data tells us about revenue strategy for Q4.
The key takeaway is clear: demand across the United States is down compared to last year. Summer 2025 closed slightly behind 2024 in many regions, and forward pacing into September and October is weaker everywhere. By contrast, Mexico and Canada remain largely stable year over year.
Watch the full webinar:
United States STR performance Summer 2025 and Q4
The U.S. market shows one consistent theme: softer demand everywhere.
- West U.S.: July occupancy was 62%, three points below last year. August was 59%, just one point behind. September pacing is only 32%, down five points, and October just 17%, two points weaker.
- Southeast U.S.: Almost identical to the West. July 62% (-3), August 59% (-1), September 32% (-5), October 17% (-2).
- Rocky Mountains: July at 66% (-3), August 60% (-2). September forward occupancy 36% (-6), October 17% (-2).
- Mid-Atlantic: July 62% (-2), August 62% (-1). September 31% (-7), October 17% (-3).
- Midwest: July 68% (-2), August 64% (-2). September 35% (-5), October 18% (-2).
- Southwest: July 54% (-2), August 48% (-1). September 24% (-5), October 15% (-1).
- New England: July 68% (-3), August 70% (-2). September 36% (-7), October 24% (-3).
- Hawaiian Islands: July 64% (-4), August 61% (-2). September 42% (-6), October 33% (-3).
The pattern is clear. Summer finished only slightly weaker, but fall pacing is consistently behind. As Lejla highlighted during our conversation: “Everything in September is in a deep shade of red. The highest numbers you see here are in the future occupancy section for September 2025.”
That means property managers across the U.S. cannot assume normal pickup, you’ll need to actively adjust for shorter booking windows and slower demand signals.
Mexico
Mexico tells a different story.
Past occupancy from September through August shows strong consistency, with only slight month-to-month lags, usually around 2%. March was an outlier, five points below last year, but by April the gap had closed.
Future pacing looks similar. Occupancy is expected to remain stable in 2025 compared to 2024, but with very limited far-out bookings. Beyond April, the market is essentially flat. For the near term, however, occupancy trends are nearly identical to last year.
The conclusion is simple: occupancy in Mexico is stable year over year. The challenge for property managers here is not demand loss, but visibility. With so little long-lead activity, success depends on being well-positioned to capture demand as it emerges.
Canada
Canada is also steady, with some seasonal nuances.
Past occupancy from September through August mirrors the previous year almost exactly. January and March dipped slightly, but by July and August, Canada had caught up and even inched ahead of 2023–24 levels.
Forward pacing into fall is weaker. September and October are lagging compared to the same time last year, but this doesn’t necessarily signal lower demand. As Lejla explained: “We are definitely seeing some uptaking in last-minute bookings, which is interesting.”
She also emphasized that property managers need to validate trends over time: “It’s about keeping an eye on these things month over month, more so than anything specific you can look at in one graph at a time.”
In short: Canada is relatively stable year over year, but demand is arriving later. The pacing gaps we see today are likely to narrow as last-minute bookings come through.
Implications for STR property managers for Q4
So what should property managers and revenue managers do with this information?
First, understand that shorter booking windows are now the norm. Across North America, guests are booking closer to arrival. If you only look at pacing, you risk misinterpreting delayed pickup as lost demand.
Second, take advantage of tools in PriceLabs:
- Occupancy-based adjustments: As Lejla put it, “One of the absolute peak things you should be doing is using our occupancy-based adjustments.” This ensures you react to slow pickup with competitive discounts or premiums.
- Last-minute discounts: Extend your last-minute window or adjust aggressiveness to align with the new booking behavior.
- Demand and seasonality sensitivity: Double-check your settings so your calendar adapts dynamically to current conditions.
Third, track results month by month. If September closes near last year’s final occupancy, then October may do the same, even if pacing looks weak today.
Finally, don’t underestimate visibility. Guests searching last minute often make quick decisions. If your listing doesn’t appear on the first page, you may lose the booking before price even comes into play. This is where AutoRank complements PriceLabs, we ensure your listing is surfaced to qualified guests at the right time, so your pricing strategy has a chance to convert.
Case study: Utah portfolio
To illustrate how this works in practice, let’s look at a Utah portfolio we recently optimized.
Before we intervened, the client was underperforming in both occupancy and RevPAR. In October and November, their occupancy was almost nonexistent. RevPAR lagged heavily behind peers. They had fallen into a downward spiral, lowering rates but not seeing results.
As I explained during the webinar: “They were in a downward spiral, where the only thing they could do was lower rates, hoping to get a booking. In early January last year, we took over with the promise of saving their New Year.”
Here’s what happened next:
- Page views surged once we began optimizing for Airbnb search visibility. By spring, the client’s listings were being seen more often than comparable properties.
- Conversion rate improved as those views turned into bookings, thanks to better alignment between pricing and listing presentation.
- Occupancy year over year moved back in line with the market, reversing the underperformance of the previous year.
- RevPAR this year caught up to market levels, showing that revenue recovery followed once both visibility and pricing were corrected.
The turnaround was only possible because of the combined effect of PriceLabs’ dynamic pricing tools and AutoRank’s listing optimization. As said in the session: “The more views you have, the more present you are in search rankings, the more people view you, the more clicks you get, the more bookings you have, the more pickup you achieve.”
This case study shows why rate adjustments alone aren’t enough. You need to align pricing strategy with visibility if you want to capture last-minute demand.
How to prepare for Q4 as a property manager
The message from this summer’s data is clear: U.S. demand is softer heading into fall 2025, while Mexico and Canada remain relatively steady. For property and revenue managers, the implications are immediate:
- Review your PriceLabs settings: occupancy-based adjustments, last-minute discounts, and demand sensitivity are critical.
- Validate pacing gaps month over month before assuming demand is gone.
- Boost OTA visibility so you’re positioned to capture bookings when late demand materializes.
At AutoRank, we specialize in ensuring your listings are seen by the right guests at the right time. Combined with PriceLabs, this creates a complete strategy: competitive rates supported by maximum visibility.
Summer may have ended slightly behind, but the real opportunity lies in how you adapt. The question is: will your listings be visible and competitive enough to capture the demand that’s still out there?
Ready to improve your Q4 performance? Book a demo with AutoRank today to see how we can boost your visibility and align your pricing strategy for maximum revenue.